Poland in Peril
If you have watched or read the news recently you might have heard about the crisis that is occurring in Eastern Europe: the border problem between Poland and Belarus. This is a very serious issue that may lead to more issues in future, such as an escalation of the crisis that would cause death, but It’s still very unclear and still very early to predict what will happen. So let's talk about this crisis and what we can try to expect from the coming months.
A now month-long border crisis on the European Union’s border with Belarus has turned into a serious geopolitical dispute. (Geopolitical is the relationship among politics, geography, demography, and economics, especially with respect to the foreign policy of a nation.) It started on the 8th of November, when there was a large increase of refugees and migrants heading to the Belarus-Poland border so they could cross into the EU to start a new life. However, the refugees and migrants were denied entry to Poland because they were trying to cross the EU border illegally, and were stopped by masses of Polish security forces and a large barbed wire fence.
The refugees and migrants are now stuck in freezing weather without supplies. They are camped out in what is considered a “no-man's-land'' between Belarus and Poland. Many Human right groups and global bodies are worried about the wellbeing of those people. They have tried to reach out but are unable to send any help because both governments have prevented access to the border area.
This crisis actually started earlier this year when the longtime president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, reacted fiercely towards the EU’s sanctions. Sanctions is a threatened penalty for disobeying a law or rule. These sanctions are about the forced diversion of a passenger jet in May and subsequent arrest of a dissident journalist, Roman Protasevich, who was on board. As well as a disputed August 2020 election which the 67-year old president was given a sixth term and provoked mass anti-government protests. After all this, Belarus announced that it would stop trying to stop any undocumented migrants and refugees from crossing into the EU. Ever since that, countries bordering Belarus have seen a large increase of people trying to cross their borders.
As for what we can expect it’s still very unclear, but further escalation looks most likely. The EU is deciding whether to impose more sanctions on Belarus. These sanctions reportedly could also target airlines the EU deems to be involved in the situation, could come into effect as soon as November 15. As for Belarus, it refuses to fix the crisis unless the earlier sanctions are lifted. Belarus also threatened to cut off Russian gas supplies to Europe, which Europe’s gas market, where prices have hit record highs in recent weeks, would be highly sensitive to any supply disruption.
